一个可以拓展现实的交互世界即将到来。它将重塑我们的工作、娱乐和交流方式,改变教育、医疗保健和生产制造行业,并带来新的风险。什么是元宇宙?我们是否安全?我们如何充分利用它?
An interconnected world of extended reality is coming that will reshape how we work, play and communicate. It will transform education, healthcare and industry – and expose us to new levels of risk. What is the metaverse? Will we be safe? How do we make the most of it?
简而言之,元宇宙可被称之为互联网发展的下一个阶段。
Put simply the metaverse could be described as the next phase of progression for the internet.
它是由数字化世界交织组建的虚拟空间,在这个空间里人们将使用虚拟现实(VR)和增强现实(AR)设备无缝导航并联络他人。
It's a vision for a network of digital worlds through which we will navigate seamlessly using virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) devices to connect with others.
在元宇宙中,你可以根据自身教育需求参加个性化课程,在沉浸式环境中学习工作技能;或者前往虚拟药店寻求建议。你也可以利用它来合作,社交,游戏,工作,锻炼,变成一只奇异动物,或者传送到一颗虚拟木星。
In the metaverse, you might take a class personalised to your educational needs, acquire job skills in an immersive environment or visit a virtual pharmacy to get advice. You might also use it to collaborate, socialise, game, work, exercise, morph into an exotic animal, or teleport to a virtual Jupiter.
元宇宙并非新概念。该词最早出自尼尔·斯蒂芬森(Neal Stephenson)于1992年出版的小说《雪崩》,被用来描述一种另类的3D虚拟现实。
It’s not a new concept – the word was first coined by Neal Stephenson in 1992 in his novel Snow Crash to describe an alternative 3D connected reality.
但随着Meta、微软和苹果等科技巨头投资数千亿美元来打造虚拟世界的未来,塑造元宇宙的想法正在迅速涌现。上月,苹果公司发布了一款备受期待的新型AR耳机“Apple Vision Pro”。它“无缝融合虚拟和现实世界”,是该公司近十年来发布的最重磅产品。
But the ideas that are shaping the metaverse are now emerging fast as Big Tech companies like Meta, Microsoft and Apple invest hundreds of billions of dollars to bring about its future. Last month, Apple unveiled a new and much-anticipated AR headset, Apple Vision Pro, which “seamlessly blends the real world and the virtual world” and is the company’s biggest product launch for almost a decade.
但同时也有部分声音指出其可能加剧过度数据收集问题。
However, some have cautioned that this digital realm could see data-harvesting reach alarming new heights.
这让我们不禁发问:元宇宙是什么? 它将如何改变我们的工作方式? 我们应该趁早解决哪些风险?
We ask: what is the metaverse? How will it change how we work? And what risks should be addressed before it’s too late to prevent them?
#1 扩展现实 EXTENDING REALITY
剑桥大学交互系统工程教授Per Ola Kristensson说:“我们认为元宇宙是虚拟现实、增强现实和物理现实的融合,这样我们就可以像在物理世界一样参与数字世界。”“这些都是扩展现实世界的例子。”
“We think of the metaverse as a merging of virtual, augmented and physical reality so that we can engage in the digital world as in the physical world,” says Per Ola Kristensson, Cambridge’s Professor of Interactive Systems Engineering. “These are all examples of extending the reality of our world.”
其中一方面是虚拟现实(VR)和各种数字世界(已经展现在《第二人生》、《我的世界》、《堡垒之夜》和《Roblox》等大型多人在线游戏中)。在这些环境中,你的数字形象或化身可以和他人一起隔空连接、探索和体验虚拟空间。
At one end of the spectrum is VR and the kinds of digital worlds already seen in massively multiplayer online games like Second Life, Minecraft, Fortnite and Roblox. In these environments, your digital image, or avatar, can connect, explore and experience virtual spaces with others who are not physically present.
贝内特公共政策研究所(Bennett Institute for Public Policy)研究员、科技企业家Sam Gilbert表示,这些技术可被视为“元宇宙原型”技术,应用十分广泛。
These could be considered “proto-metaverse” technologies and their uptake is huge, says tech entrepreneur Sam Gilbert, an affiliated researcher at the Bennett Institute for Public Policy.
“以《Roblox》为例,这是一个允许用户编写和参与的在线游戏平台。在英国,该平台已经有940万活跃玩家。在美国,9到12岁的儿童中有75%经常使用该平台。”
“Take Roblox, a platform which allows users to programme and play online games. In the UK, there are already 9.4 million active Roblox players. In the USA, a staggering 75% of children aged 9 to 12 regularly use the platform.”
另一方面是增强现实(AR),比如能在眼前浮现信息的智能眼镜这样的设备。
At the other end of the spectrum is AR in which devices like smart glasses overlay information on your view of the real world.
虽然一些技术已经投入使用,但仍有部分技术尚未完全实现,例如数字全息图与物理空间的混合现实。Kristensson解释说:“目前,能够让数字全息图呈现在眼前的真正的光学透视艺术,很难在正确的视野下可靠地制造出来。”
While some of these technologies are already in use, others like mixed reality blending of digital holograms with physical spaces have yet to be fully realised. “Currently, truly optical see-through art, where you see digital holograms in front of you, is very difficult to manufacture reliably with the right field of view,” explains Kristensson.
至关重要的是,让所有数字和现实空间实现“可互操作”的目的,意味着我们将能通过共享信息的服务和环境来实现在体验和设备之间无缝移动。
Crucially, the ambition is for all of these digital and real spaces to be ‘interoperable’, meaning we will be able to move seamlessly across experiences and devices, enabled by services and environments that share information and continue to exist when we’re not there.
那么这个新世界要多久才能融入我们的生活呢?
So how soon will this new world be a part of our lives?
“我认为这个过程是5-10年。”剑桥工程设计中心的Matteo Zallio博士说道,他协助应对在设计包容且符合伦理的VR及XR体验过程中边界模糊的挑战。
“I would give a time frame of 5–10 years,” says Dr Matteo Zallio, from Cambridge Engineering Design Centre, who helps organisations to navigate ambiguous challenges for designing inclusive and ethical VR and extended reality (XR) experiences.
“现在互联网已经影响到我们50%到70%的日常生活,全球约86%的人口拥有智能手机,科技显然已经迅速成为我们生活中不可或缺的一部分。”
“With the internet now influencing 50 to 70% of our daily routines and approximately 86% of the global population owning smartphones, it’s evident how rapidly technology has become an integral part of our lives.
以苹果公司的“Vision Pro”眼镜为例,它可以将电脑内容无缝集成到你的眼镜中。你可以通过简单的手势毫不费力地放大或关闭窗口。现有的技术展现了未来的潜力,这一领域无疑将继续迅猛发展。”
“Consider Apple’s Vision Pro glasses, which offer a seamless integration of computer content right into your eyewear. With simple hand gestures, you can effortlessly zoom in or pinch to close a window. The existing technology exemplifies the potential that lies ahead, and undoubtedly, this field will continue to evolve swiftly.”
#2 在元宇宙中工作 WORKING IN THE METAVERSE
Kristensson教授看到了在元宇宙中开发虚拟办公室的巨大机遇,并且认为这早就应该实现了。
Per Ola Kristensson sees huge opportunities for developing the virtual office in the metaverse – and it’s long overdue, he says.
他说:“尽管智能手机和平板电脑等新硬件不断涌现,但传统办公环境几乎没有随之改进,依旧是笔记本电脑、键盘、鼠标和使用各种应用程序,并且这些可能都是在狭窄或嘈杂的物理环境中进行的。”
“Despite the takeup of new hardware like smartphones and tablets, very little has changed in the traditional workstation setup of laptop, keyboard, mouse and switching between applications – and all of this might take place in a physical environment that’s cramped or noisy,” says Kristensson.
“如果你可以自主创造一个大型虚拟办公环境,并通过使用便携式标准输入设备和沉浸式头戴显示器随时随地访问它,那会怎么样?”
“What if you could create the working environment of your choice as a large virtual office and access it wherever you go using portable standard input devices and immersive head-mounted displays?”
Kristensson特别关注机器学习系统的构建,该系统允许员工使用“混合现实”来创建演示文稿,使用电子表格,键入文本和设计3D模型。他与微软合作探索这些系统如何帮助员工在不受日常办公桌物理设置限制的情况下提高效率和表现力。
Kristensson’s particular focus has been the building of machine learning systems that allow workers to use “mixed reality” to create presentations, work with spreadsheets, type text and design 3D models. His work in collaboration with Microsoft explores how these systems can help workers to be more efficient and expressive when unconstrained by the physicality of their usual desk set-up.
当然,并不是每个人都希望或能够利用元宇宙。在新冠疫情期间,由于互联网获取不平等已经加剧了数字鸿沟,有人担心元宇宙会进一步扩大这种数字鸿沟。
Of course not everyone will desire, or be able to, take advantage of the metaverse – and concerns have been raised that this will further widen a digital divide that was exacerbated in the COVID-19 pandemic by inequitable access to the internet.
但Kristensson认为,元宇宙也会给那些因残疾而被边缘化的人创造新机遇。
But Kristensson believes the metaverse will also open up new opportunities to people who are marginalised by disability.
在英国工程和自然科学研究委员会的资助下,他正在与英国皇家盲人协会、Meta和雷丁大学合作,探索元宇宙如何为各年龄段的功能障碍者(视力、听力、行动能力、灵活性和/或心理健康)提供生活帮助。
He is exploring how the metaverse could introduce life-changing benefits for people at any age with any loss in capability – vision, hearing, mobility, dexterity and/or mental health – in collaboration with the Royal National Institute of Blind People, Meta and the University of Reading, with funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.
与此同时,Sam Gilbert一直在研究元宇宙政治经济学。他推测,虚拟世界工作可能会扭转年轻人的现状,他们的就业受新冠影响最为严重。
Meanwhile, Sam Gilbert has been exploring the political economy of the metaverse and speculates that the shift to working in the virtual world could turn the tables for young people who have been the worst affected by the disruption COVID has caused to the job market.
“年轻人已经在虚拟工作场所展示了竞争优势。他们更直观地掌握数字技术,并主动通过YouTube教程、社交媒体和社交新闻网站来解决问题。作为新一代,他们也是更大的玩家。
“Young people have already demonstrated a competitive edge in the virtual workplace. They come equipped with a more intuitive grasp of digital technology and the initiative to troubleshoot problems via YouTube tutorials, social media and subreddits. As a generation, they’re also bigger gamers.
他补充说:“毫无疑问,元宇宙将让组织创建持久的虚拟现实工作环境,员工可以在其中以具象化身份实时互动。” “虚拟工作空间可以被设计成鼓励偶遇和走廊聊天——重现我们在疫情中失去的 ‘饮水机时刻’。”
“The metaverse will no doubt see organisations creating persistent virtual reality workplace environments, in which employees can interact in real time as embodied avatars,” he adds. “Virtual versions of office spaces can be designed to encourage chance encounters and corridor chats: recreating the elusive ‘watercooler moments’ we’ve lost in the pandemic.”
#3 我们会免受伤害吗? WILL WE BE SAFE FROM HARM?
“接受范式转换的新型技术,比如元宇宙相关技术,需要承认其可能产生的成本。然而,这些潜在成本意味着这些技术可以带来巨大的潜力和影响,推动我们进入一个振奋人心的未来,”Zallio强调道。他发表了一份报告,列出了如何设计具有道德性、包容性和安全性的VR和XR环境(元宇宙)的10条原则。
“Embracing the possibilities of new, paradigm-shifting technologies like those in the metaverse requires acknowledging that they may come with some costs. However, these potential costs signify the immense potential and impact these technologies can bring, propelling us into an exciting future,” highlights Zallio, who has published a report setting out 10 principles for how organisations can design an ethical, inclusive and safe VR and XR environments (metaverse).
他的报告由欧盟资助,以行业专家们做的定性研究为基础。这些行业专家来自正在塑造数字沉浸式环境未来的行业,例如包括谷歌、Meta、松下和HTC。他还成立了元宇宙伦理研究所(Metavethics Institute),这是一个由研究人员、行业领袖和政策制定者组成的非营利智库,旨在为开发元宇宙制定最佳的实践方法。
His report, funded by the European Union, is based on a qualitative study conducted with experts from some of the industries currently shaping the future of digital immersive environments (including Google, Meta, Panasonic and HTC). He has also launched the Metavethics Institute, a not-for-profit thinktank of researchers, industry leaders and policymakers to develop best practices for the metaverse.
随着我们更长时间地沉浸在元宇宙中,我们的VR和AR互动设备也将分享我们的私密信息,包括面部表情、注视方向、注视时间、手势、身体运动、心率,以及我们选择通过AI创建的内容。
As we begin to spend more time in the metaverse, the devices we use to interact in VR and AR will also be sharing our intimate information: facial expressions, where we are looking and for how long, gestures, body movement, heart rate, the content we choose to create using generative AI.
“收集的个人信息的广度和私密性将完全不同于其他消费级设备,”Shannon Pierson说。
“The breadth and intimacy of the personal information that will be collected will be unlike anything we’ve seen yet in another consumer-grade device,” says Shannon Pierson.
“VR和AR头显收集大量的生物特征和运动数据,以加强仿真交互式模拟和虚拟环境。
“VR and AR headsets collect extensive biometric and motion data to facilitate convincing, interactive simulations and virtual environments.
“不过这些数据流可以表明医疗状况、性取向,并从成千上万的人中识别出一个人。”
“However, these data streams can indicate medical conditions, sexual orientation, and identify an individual out of tens of thousands of others.”
Pierson是剑桥明德鲁技术与民主中心的数字威胁调查员、研究员,曾在微软和Meta工作。她认为,现在迫切需要对隐私问题提出质疑。
Pierson is a digital threat investigator and affiliated researcher at the Minderoo Centre for Technology & Democracy in Cambridge, and has previously worked with Microsoft and Meta. She believes there’s an urgent need for questions to be asked about privacy.
“政策制定者不应想当然地认为,大型科技行业会自愿采用值得信赖的规范,优先考虑用户的安全和隐私。监管机构现在就积极主动地解决XR技术问题,而不是坐等这些危害大量影响到用户,这一点至关重要。
“Policymakers should not assume that the Big Tech industry will voluntarily adopt trusted norms that prioritise the safety and privacy of users. It is vital that regulators be proactive in addressing XR technologies now, rather than waiting for these harms to affect users en masse.
“公司能否在元宇宙中保护用户隐私?用户是否能够合理同意在游戏过程中持续跟踪他们的非自愿生物特征反应并以此盈利?这些都是立法者需要考虑的问题。”
“Can companies preserve user privacy in the metaverse? Can users reasonably consent to the persistent tracking and monetisation of their involuntary biometric responses throughout gameplay? These are the questions lawmakers need to consider.”
考虑到几乎没有任何保护措施来引导这些技术负责任地发展,Pierson刚发表了一份题为《保护元宇宙:解决扩展现实的危害》的报告,评估了元宇宙可能造成的危害,并提出了减轻这些危害的政策建议。
Concerned that few guardrails are in place to ensure that these technologies progress responsibly, Pierson has just published a report, Securing the Metaverse: addressing harms in extended reality, that assesses the possible harms of the metaverse and suggests policy recommendations to mitigate them.
她呼吁立法者扩大英国《在线安全法案》中关于XR的“内容”定义,并重新评估隐私、安全和消费者保护法,来适用于元宇宙。
She calls on lawmakers to expand the definition in the UK’s Online Safety Bill for what qualifies as ‘content’ with respect to XR and for a re-evaluation of privacy, security and consumer protection laws to apply to the metaverse.
Pierson建议采用“隐私设计”,即公司尽可能减少数据收集,只收集必要的数据,最小化在设备上处理和存储数据的时间,并限制公司与第三方共享。
Pierson recommends adopting ‘privacy by design’, meaning that companies minimise data collection to only what is necessary, process and store data on-device for minimal amounts of time, and restrict the data companies share with third-parties.
Pierson表示:“归根结底,优先考虑用户安全符合公司自身利益,因为这可以改善用户体验,建立品牌信任,并鼓励用户在平台上花费更多时间。”“但行业和政府之间需要清楚定义什么才是安全的元宇宙。”
“Ultimately, it’s in the company’s own benefit to prioritise user safety and security as it improves user experience, builds brand trust, and encourages users to spend more time on platform,” says Pierson. “But there needs to be clarification between industry and government on what makes a safe metaverse.”
“如果不加以解决,诸如敏感生物特征数据跟踪等问题,将不可避免地根深蒂固刻在元宇宙基础设施和商业模式中。”
“If left unaddressed, problems such as tracking of sensitive biometric data will become entrenched into metaverse infrastructure and business models in ways that will be difficult to untangle.”
尽管如此,Pierson还是对这项技术充满希望。
Nevertheless, Pierson is very hopeful about this technology.
她说:“我对这项技术的未来感到兴奋,尤其是在沉浸式学习和医疗保健领域。”“XR的沉浸式学习应用将为学生提供量身定制的适应性学习体验,这无疑将帮助有学习障碍的学生。我也对医疗从业者如何利用它为患者提供更好的治疗和健康教育持乐观态度。
“I am excited by the future of this technology, especially in the areas of immersive learning and healthcare,” she says. “Immersive learning applications of XR will provide adaptive learning experiences tailored to the student, which will no doubt help students with learning disabilities. I am also optimistic about how it will be used by healthcare practitioners to provide patients better treatment and health education.”